So I’ve been playing Fantasy Premier League for years now, right? And every season, the same headache comes up – players getting more expensive outta nowhere, wrecking my team value. Felt like pure luck when someone rose in price. Then I realized there’s actually patterns to this madness.
My big misunderstanding at first
Used to think price changes just happened randomly when lots of people transferred a player in. Wrong! The game actually uses some secret formula – transfers in AND transfers out both matter, but early transfers count way more than late ones. Blew my mind when I figured that out.
How I started tracking it
First thing I did? Found those free price change prediction sites. Bookmarked ’em. Started checking like clockwork every evening around 9 PM UK time – right before the algorithm usually updates. Set phone alarms too. Felt like some stock market junkie staring at numbers.
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My tracking routine became:
- Daily 9 PM check: Watchlisted key players
- Noted if predictions showed “likely rise” or “close to drop”
- Made excel sheets tracking how often predictions were right (spoiler: bout 70% accurate)
The timing tricks I tested
Okay here’s where it got wild. I started transferring players EARLY – like Tuesday right after Monday night games. Risky? Hell yeah. Injury news could drop later. But guess what? Players I brought early often rose TWICE by Friday. Made me feel like a genius… until one got injured Thursday. Total rollercoaster.
Another play: Selling players about to drop. Saw my defender was 99% dropping Thursday night. Sold him Wednesday even though he had a decent fixture. Used the extra cash to grab some bandwagon striker rising fast. Math ain’t my strong suit but even I understood selling before 0.1 drop = free cash.
The painful lessons
Got greedy once. Saw three players about to rise. Used my wildcard just to catch price bumps. Team value shot up… but my actual points CRATERED next week. Forgot actual football matters more than imaginary money. Felt so stupid chasing pennies.
Also learned transfers before press conferences = suicide. Bought shiny new midfielder Friday afternoon… Conte benched him Saturday. That -4 point hit stung for weeks.
What actually works now
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My current price rise rules:
- Only buy early IF player midweek injury risk is low
- Never take hits just for team value
- Sell drop risks ONLY if I genuinely want them gone
- Always check manager pressers before Friday transfers
End result? My team value’s consistently top 10% in my mini-league. But bigger win? Stopped stressing over daily price changes. Now when I see Salah’s price fly up after I bought him cheap? Just smile and make coffee. Game’s meant to be fun, not a second job.