Alright so this morning I was staring at the upcoming West Ham vs Chelsea fixture like… how do I actually get smarter about this? Not just guessing, y’know? Figured stats might help, so I grabbed a cuppa and dove in. Felt a bit messy at first, honestly.
Where I Started (Bit Rough)
First, I just hit up some basic league tables. Kinda obvious, but needed grounding. Saw Chelsea hovering higher, West Ham mid-table. Didn’t tell me much about this game though. Needed more.
Went digging for the last few times they played each other. Found this stat: West Ham hadn’t beaten Chelsea at home in like… forever. Five years? Maybe longer. That felt big. Made me lean towards Chelsea not losing, but… still felt shaky.
Getting Stuck & Finding a Nugget
Then I started looking at player stuff. Injuries? Suspensions? Got overwhelmed fast. Too many names. Paqueta out for West Ham? Big hole. Felt stuck.
So I shifted. Forgot the names, looked at teams doing things. Found this one stat glaring at me: West Ham concedes loads of shots. Like, one of the worst in the league. And Chelsea? They take plenty of shots. Not always great shots, mind you, but volume. That clicked. Chelsea would probably get chances, maybe lots. Suddenly the game felt different.
- West Ham’s Weakness: Lets opponents shoot… a lot.
- Chelsea’s Habit: Takes a ton of shots (even if messy).
Connecting the Dots (Kinda)
Okay, Chelsea gets shots. West Ham allows shots. But does Chelsea SCORE? That’s the rub. Their conversion… well, it’s not great. This made me think: Chelsea pressure, loads of attempts… but maybe wastefulness? Or maybe a couple finally go in?
Then I remembered that home record thing for West Ham against Chelsea. Combine it with the shot stats? Chelsea looking stronger for at least not losing, maybe scraping a win. Felt better than just a guess. Ended up thinking:
- Close game.
- Lots of Chelsea pressure.
- Fewer, but maybe sharper, West Ham chances?
- A Chelsea win or draw felt most likely based on this scratchpad mess.
Realization (After the Fact)
Did this make me a genius? Nope! Chelsea only just squeezed a late win. Super tight, loads of Chelsea possession and attempts. Felt like my messy stat digging kinda predicted the flow, even if the score was nervy. One stupid mistake or moment of quality changes everything. Stats just help you see the patterns a bit clearer, maybe avoid total guesswork.