Alright, let’s dig into figuring out which FPL price change predictors actually work without all the hype. Woke up determined to sort through the noise since my Fantasy Premier League team got wrecked by unexpected price drops last week.
Starting the hunt
First thing, fired up my laptop and searched “FPL prediction tools”. Found like 10 sites claiming they had the magic formula. My gut said most were sketchy, so I picked five with decent forum buzz:
- That one with flashy graphs everyone screenshots
- The Twitter bot spamming hourly updates
- Site running “AI algorithms” as their headline
- Basic text-only tool from some Reddit guy
- Bookmark site I’ve used since 2019
Wrote down this week’s risers/fallers predicted by each before Friday deadline. Made an Excel sheet tracking exactly when they updated predictions and compared it to official FPL price changes. Drank two coffees doing this – manual checks suck but needed real data.
What actually happened
Flashy graph site bombed hard. Predicted Fernandes would drop Friday night? Nope. Raheem Sterling rise? Never happened. Felt like they just guessed based on ownership percentages.
Twitter bot kept flip-flopping. At 1pm it said Watkins rising, by 8pm same day “unlikely”. Official update showed him rising next afternoon. Useless emotional rollercoaster.
The “AI” site? Total joke. Every single prediction was off by at least 12 hours. Half their “certain” falls didn’t happen. Probably just rebranding simple math.
Surprise winner
Old-school Reddit tool and my 2019 bookmark site got nearly identical results. Their predictions were boring – no fancy terms, just “likely/possible/unlikely” labels. But when they marked Son Heung-min as “near certain” to rise? Happened exactly when they said Tuesday night. Same with Gabriel’s price drop. Accuracy felt spooky.
Final verdict
After three days tracking:
- Simple tools beat “advanced” ones big time
- Consistency matters way more than fancy updates
- Any tool updating predictions more than twice daily? Probably overcompensating with garbage data
Uninstalled four apps immediately. Keeping the ugly text-based tools – they actually work. Lesson? FPL price changes ain’t rocket science. Clever marketing just makes bad predictors sound smart.