I swear, sometimes I start these projects just because I’m annoyed by a simple question. This whole thing kicked off last Thursday night. I was watching a re-run of an old Atlético Madrid vs. Osasuna game from 2012, and my neighbor, who only started watching soccer two years ago, leaned over and said, “Man, this is a huge rivalry, right? Historically massive.”
I almost choked on my soda. I knew that wasn’t true. For years, decades even, ATM just steamrolled them, or Osasuna was busy fighting off relegation. But when I went to casually prove him wrong, I realized I couldn’t just say it. I had to show it. I needed to actually map out the history, not just the head-to-head results, but the actual league position standing, year after grueling year. So, I dove headfirst into the mess.
Starting the Scrape: Gathering the Disaster Data
The first thing I did was crack open the laptop and began gathering data. Forget fancy APIs; I needed raw, messy history. I started trawling through various Spanish sports archives and Wikipedia pages. I specifically focused on isolating the end-of-season league position for both teams, stretching all the way back to the 2000/2001 season. That’s over twenty seasons of standings data I had to pull down.
I quickly ran into a wall. The data was inconsistent as hell. Some sources would list ATM as ‘Athletic Madrid,’ others just ‘Atlético.’ Osasuna’s entry would sometimes vanish entirely, which meant they were relegated. I had to create a key for relegation years, inputting a placeholder value of ’23’ for any year a team wasn’t in the top flight, just so my comparison charts wouldn’t freak out. I opened up a massive spreadsheet—a total beast—and started manually copying and pasting column after column of final league standings.
It was brutal. I spent about six hours straight just normalizing the year ranges, ensuring I had both teams listed for every single season, even if one of them was technically playing in the Segunda División. I needed to establish a baseline of the ‘average positional gap’ between them.
The Grind: Cleaning and Visualizing the Gap
Once the initial data dump was complete, I started calculating the difference. I wanted to visualize the historical disparity. I developed two core metrics:
- The Positional Deficit: The difference in their final league position each year (e.g., ATM finishes 3rd, Osasuna finishes 14th = 11-point positional deficit).
- The Head-to-Head Win Rate: Simple tally of how many times ATM won versus Osasuna.
I plugged all these numbers into the spreadsheet’s charting functions. What I saw instantly confirmed my initial suspicion. For the vast majority of the 21st century, there wasn’t a rivalry; there was a routine. ATM, even during their tougher years, was usually floating in the European spots, while Osasuna was the definition of a mid-to-lower-table team, often dipping into the second tier. The average positional deficit was huge—about 10 to 12 places, factoring in those years Osasuna wasn’t even in La Liga.
I could visibly see how, from 2013 through about 2018, the deficit line was consistently massive. ATM was winning league titles and making Champions League finals, while Osasuna was fighting to stay afloat, or not even there at all. It was historically a one-sided affair. My neighbor was wrong about the past.
The Pivot: Realizing Why the Match Matters Now
But then I zoomed in on the last three seasons. That’s where the practice really paid off and I understood the title: “Why this match matters so much!”
I noticed a trend reversal. Since 2021, Osasuna has been consistently strong. They stopped being relegation fodder. They cemented themselves in the upper half of the table. More importantly, when I looked at the recent head-to-head metrics, they were no longer getting completely annihilated. While ATM still holds the advantage, Osasuna is forcing draws, keeping clean sheets against them, and the scorelines are tighter than they’ve been in years.
I processed the data again, focusing specifically on Osasuna’s current stability. They are now challenging for European spots themselves. They are playing with confidence, and their tactical setup means they are no longer just sitting back against the big boys.
The historical data made it crystal clear that this match wasn’t important because of a historic grudge; it’s important because it marks a paradigm shift. It’s the difference between a top team playing a struggling team, and two highly competent teams vying for the same continental tickets. The positional deficit, which used to be 15 points, has shrunk to maybe 5 or 6, and sometimes even less. It’s the moment Osasuna has earned the right to call it a competitive fixture.
I finished the analysis, closed the spreadsheet, and realized I couldn’t completely trash talk my neighbor anymore. He was totally wrong about the history, but he was completely right about the present stakes. The current matchup matters so much because Osasuna has finally climbed out of the shadow of decades of disparity and established itself as a genuine threat. I documented my findings, took a massive gulp of coffee, and felt satisfied that I had done the work to prove exactly how much history is changing right in front of us.