Alright let’s talk FPL price rises. People keep asking me why player prices go bonkers sometimes, so this season I actually bothered to track it week by week. Like, really sat down and watched the madness unfold.
What I Thought Would Happen
I figured it was simple. Player scores goals = price goes up. Player gets injured = price drops. Easy, right? Seemed obvious. But oh man, was I in for a wild ride.
What I Actually Did
So, start of the season, I picked my team. Then I got curious. I started noting down prices every single day. Yeah, every single day before bed – borderline obsessive, I know. I kept this little spreadsheet going. Just player names, their price that day, and anything big happening – injuries, hat-tricks, managers yelling at the ref. You name it.
The Weird Stuff I Noticed
- Tuesday Chaos: Forget weekends. The real drama? Tuesday nights, around 1 AM UK time. That’s when prices usually change. It’s like clockwork, but only if enough people are messing with their teams that day.
- Transfer Tsunamis: Player scores a nice goal on Saturday. Great! But his price doesn’t budge Sunday. Nope. It starts moving Monday and Monday night/Tuesday early morning is when the floodgates open. Thousands of managers all pile in at once. That massive wave of transfers? That’s the real trigger. It ain’t just points, it’s the panic buying!
- The Injury Paradox: Player gets a bad injury. Everyone talks about dropping him. But guess what? His price often stays put for a day or two. People wait. They hesitate. They wanna see the manager’s update. The price only starts tanking when the confirmed bad news lands and thousands actually hit that ‘Transfer Out’ button. Fear drives the drops, just like hype drives the rises.
- Template Teams Screw Everything: If a cheap player suddenly becomes the “must-have” guy everyone uses, his price shoots up crazy fast just because so many people need him to free up cash elsewhere. It ain’t always about him being amazing; it’s about him being the cheap glue holding expensive teams together.
The Painful Lesson I Learned
After weeks of this weird spreadsheet habit, staring at midnight price changes? The big takeaway hit me hard. Chasing price rises is a trap. Seriously. You see a guy flying up in price Friday night? That bandwagon is already rolling fast down the hill. Jumping on then? You’re usually too late and paying top dollar. The big rises happen before you see them coming in your game. It’s all about predicting the madness, not reacting to it. That’s what burns you. Spent weeks figuring why prices move, only to realize jumping on the moving train is how you lose an ankle. Pick players to score points, not to make a quick 0.1m. Easier said than done though. Ask me how my bank balance looks after trying to get ‘value’. Spoiler: Not great!