Alright, let’s dive right into figuring out these maddening FPL price changes. Honestly, they used to drive me nuts, especially last season when one of my key players dropped right before a Double Gameweek. Felt like crying.
My First Theory That Failed Miserably
I started off dead certain it was all about goals. I mean, makes sense, right? Player scores goals, gets points, everyone wants him, price goes up. Simple. So, I camped out on the official site for days after matches, refreshing like a madman whenever a popular striker played.
Nope. Not that simple. Loads of times, a player would score, get tons of points… and crickets. No change. Meanwhile, some midfielder who just assisted and got 1 bonus point suddenly went up by £0.2m overnight! How? Why?
The Frustrating Pattern I Finally Noticed
After banging my head against the wall (and my keyboard), I decided to ditch the points angle. Maybe it was transfers? I started scribbling down notes every single night:
- Transfer Volume: How many people were actually moving players in or out? The site shows numbers.
- Net Transfers: Specifically, was a player getting bought a lot more than sold?
- Price Moves: Checked first thing every morning to see who jumped or fell.
Weeks of this. Seriously. My coffee intake doubled. But slowly, a pattern crept out of the chaos. Forget points, the real culprit was transfer rush. If huge numbers of managers suddenly piled onto one player, buying him like crazy that day, boom – price rose, often the next night.
I saw it happen consistently: a player like a super-popular defender or midfielder would have +80,000 net transfers (way more buys than sells) one day, and wham! Next day, he was £0.1m more expensive. And the drops? Same thing, but in reverse. Lots of people panic-selling a player? Price falls, usually overnight.
The Simple (Annoying) Truth I Use Now
So, here’s what I practice religiously, and it keeps me sane:
- Forget Gameweek Points: They might influence why people transfer, but they don’t trigger the price change directly. It’s purely the transfer action.
- Watch Transfer Numbers Daily: Especially the big net positives for rises (+80k, +100k thresholds seemed key) and big net negatives for falls. That’s your early warning.
- Act Before the Rush: If I want a bandwagon player, I try to get him early in the Gameweek before his transfers hit those magic numbers. Waiting until after a good performance usually means paying extra.
- Stay Calm After Bad Games: Don’t knee-jerk sell after one bad match unless his net transfers are collapsing that same day. Price drops usually need sustained selling pressure over several days.
Is it perfect? Nah. The exact thresholds are murky, and sometimes it feels random, but sticking to this transfer volume focus has saved me cash and stress way more times than it’s let me down. I stopped stressing about why Player X didn’t rise and focused on tracking who was getting transferred in en masse. It’s manual, it’s kinda boring sometimes, but hey, it works for my team budget.