How I Kicked Off This Messy Prediction Job
Look, I didn’t wake up one morning thinking, “Hey, I should figure out if Valladolid can catch Betis.” The whole thing started because my cousin, Dave—the one who always bets against my advice—sent me a message late Tuesday night. He’d thrown a ridiculous amount of money on a long shot about the relegation battle and survival spots. He was panicking because the gap seemed too big, but he swore Valladolid was due for a miracle run. He basically challenged me to prove him wrong.
So, the first thing I did was drag my butt out of bed early the next morning, grabbed a terrible cup of instant coffee, and set up my workspace. My process is always the same: forget the TV pundits, ignore the noise, and just look at the raw material. I needed to see exactly how big that points gap was and what the remaining schedules looked like. You can’t predict anything if you don’t first map the path.
Digging Up the Dirt on Recent Form
My initial reaction was that Dave was crazy. The standings looked solid for Betis. But you know how football goes; two bad weeks and everything flips. I didn’t use any fancy API tool or anything. I just pulled up the last six match results for both teams. This is where the real work started, mapping out exactly who was playing better right now, regardless of the overall table position.
- Step 1: Documenting the recent history. I manually transcribed the last half dozen scores for Betis. What I saw wasn’t encouraging for them. Lots of draws, and they seem to always drop points when they play away against teams they should beat comfortably. Their attack looks tired, and their defense is starting to get leaky. Fatigue looks like a real problem, especially for a squad that’s been run hard all season.
- Step 2: Scrutinizing Valladolid’s resurgence. Valladolid’s form looked better than the league table suggested. They managed to sneak out a couple of crucial 1-0 wins recently, showing they can grind out results. They’ve suddenly started performing like a team playing for their lives, which tells me the new coach bounce, or maybe just pure, concentrated desperation, is kicking in.
- Step 3: Calculating the points needed. I laid out the current points differential. We’re talking about needing a massive three-game swing just to pull level in the standings this late in the season. It seemed impossible, but the recent form suggested momentum was shifting.
The Deep Dive: Who’s Got the Easier Road?
This is where the simple numbers stop talking and the gut feeling needs serious backup from the schedule analysis. I printed out the remaining fixture lists—yeah, actual paper, I’m old school—and color-coded every single remaining match. Red for tough opponents (teams fighting for Europe or the title), Yellow for mid-table boredom, and Green for fellow relegation/struggle battles.
Betis’s Nightmare Schedule:
I immediately noticed Betis still has to go through a couple of absolute grinders. They have to face a current top-four team away from home. Plus, their local rivalry matches are stacked up towards the end of the run. These games aren’t just about skill; they’re about sheer emotional draining and massive effort. I marked three specific games where I believe they will drop points, maybe only pulling one point total from nine contested.
Valladolid’s Golden Opportunity:
On the flip side, Valladolid has a run of games against teams that have absolutely nothing left to play for. We’re talking mid-table teams just waiting for the summer vacation to start. That’s pure gold for a desperate team. When one team is fighting for their lives and the other is already mentally checked out, the desperate team usually wins the points. I projected Valladolid to pick up at least seven points from their next four matches, mostly thanks to those easier home fixtures against unmotivated opponents. This shift in schedule difficulty is the key factor, not the current standing.
Running the Numbers and the Final Verdict
After all that messy transcription and marker-pen coloring, I sat back and ran the final simulations—which is really just me adding up the projected points on a basic spreadsheet. I considered three different scenarios: Worst Case (Betis holds steady and wins easy), Best Case (Valladolid catches fire and wins everything), and Most Likely (a slow, painful convergence based on current form and schedule difficulty).
The convergence scenario, the one I put the most faith in because it balanced desperation against historical quality, showed Valladolid absolutely chewing into that gap. They won’t overtake Betis, no. Betis has just too much of a head start and slightly better overall depth, even if they look exhausted right now.
But the real question was: Will Valladolid manage to close the gap?
My conclusion, after pouring all that time into checking the data and mapping the fixtures, was a resounding yes. They will manage to close it. The points differential will shrink significantly, making the last few weeks excruciatingly uncomfortable for Betis fans. But Betis will likely scrape through and keep their nose just ahead by maybe two points, confirming Dave’s belief in Valladolid’s late surge, even if his betting decision was still risky.
I immediately sent Dave a message telling him he was stupid to bet on relegation, but he wasn’t entirely wrong about Valladolid’s ability to put pressure on the teams above them. Now, I just wait and see if my amateur scribbling holds up better than the expensive expert predictions.